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University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock’s “Making Conversations Smarter, Faster” Forecasting Project

Organization Name 
Award Date 
Grant Amount 
To support development and pre-testing of the “Making Conversations Smarter, Faster” project.
Topic (focus area) 

Published: August 2017
Grant investigator: Luke Muehlhauser

This page was reviewed but not written by the grant investigator. University of Pennsylvania staff also reviewed this page prior to publication.

The Open Philanthropy Project recommended a grant of $1,550,000 to the University of Pennsylvania to support work on a collaborative reasoning system called “Making Conversations Smarter, Faster” (MCSF). This system will be designed to incentivize high epistemic quality in participants’ contributions to a collaborative reasoning process, for example a policy debate or a forecasting exercise. Another goal of MCSF is to identify and cultivate “super analysts” (who are significantly better than average at distinguishing between strong and weak ideas, arguments, and evidence) in much the same way that recent forecasting tournaments have identified and cultivated “superforecasters” (who are significantly better than average at producing accurate forecasts).1

The funds are intended to support the initial development and pre-testing of MCSF, laying the groundwork for future confirmatory studies. This work will be led by Professors Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers of University of Pennsylvania, and Professor Emeritus Daniel Kahneman of Princeton University.

Update: In February 2019, we added $250,000 to the original award amount. The “grant amount” above has been updated to reflect this.


Superforecasting, Tetlock and Gardner, 2015Source (archive)