Internal Forecasts

In early 2016, we began experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decisionmaking (especially grantmaking), which we sometimes make public on the relevant grant page. The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. We are still deciding how frequently and how thoroughly we intend to revisit these forecasts.