In early 2016, we began experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grantmaking). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were.

in June 2022, we published a post with more detail on this process, including a review of how accurate our predictions have been so far.