Organization Name 
Award Date 
3/2020
Grant Amount 
$40,000
Purpose 
To expand efforts to aggregate, publish, and track expert forecasts about the COVID-19 outbreak.

Grant Investigator: Luke Muehlhauser

This page was reviewed but not written by the grant investigator. Good Judgment Inc. staff also reviewed this page prior to publication.

Open Philanthropy recommended a contract of $40,000 with Good Judgment Inc. to expand its efforts to aggregate, publish, and track forecasts about the COVID-19 outbreak with the hope that the forecasts can help improve planning by health security professionals and the broader public, limit the spread of the virus, and save lives. The forecasts are aggregated each day from the most accurate 1-2% of forecasters from a large-scale, government-funded series of forecasting tournaments, plus an annual uptake of a handful of top performers from the nearly 40,000 forecasters on Good Judgement Open.

This is related to our broader work on biosecurity and pandemic preparedness. This project was supported through a contractor agreement. While we typically do not publish pages for contractor agreements, we occasionally opt to do so.